* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANIEL EP042012 07/11/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 26 24 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 28 26 24 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 28 26 24 22 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 18 14 14 17 26 44 46 48 39 46 47 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -1 -3 -4 -12 -10 -9 -4 -7 -1 N/A SHEAR DIR 350 343 335 315 295 280 300 294 291 291 283 279 N/A SST (C) 24.6 24.8 24.8 24.8 24.9 25.1 25.5 25.7 25.9 25.9 26.0 26.2 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 110 112 113 113 114 116 120 122 124 123 124 126 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.7 -53.6 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 8 N/A 700-500 MB RH 36 35 37 37 34 32 31 29 31 31 35 37 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 11 11 10 9 8 7 6 6 5 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -6 1 2 0 1 1 4 -2 -2 0 -2 N/A 200 MB DIV -42 -33 -23 -33 -24 -17 -40 -9 -25 12 0 45 N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 0 -1 -2 0 -2 -1 -5 -6 -6 N/A LAND (KM) 1481 1338 1197 1045 897 653 473 462 648 846 927 1070 N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.4 15.3 15.4 15.4 15.2 15.0 14.9 14.7 14.7 14.9 15.2 N/A LONG(DEG W) 141.5 143.0 144.4 146.0 147.5 150.6 153.8 156.8 159.9 162.4 164.5 167.0 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 15 15 15 15 15 14 11 11 12 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. -4. -11. -18. -22. -25. -28. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -10. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -7. -11. -15. -16. -17. -17. -18. -18. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -8. -16. -25. -35. -44. -49. -53. -57. -55. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042012 DANIEL 07/11/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -31.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)