* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILIA EP052012 07/11/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 100 98 96 89 74 66 51 38 27 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 100 100 98 96 89 74 66 51 38 27 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 100 101 98 94 89 77 65 55 46 38 31 25 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 15 15 13 14 9 1 5 5 9 8 7 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -5 -5 -3 -5 -1 6 10 4 2 0 5 0 SHEAR DIR 102 86 83 108 107 91 308 295 282 238 252 266 270 SST (C) 27.2 27.0 26.7 26.2 25.6 24.5 24.1 24.3 24.0 23.5 23.3 23.6 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 135 133 130 125 119 109 105 106 103 98 96 100 104 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.6 -51.8 -52.0 -51.7 -51.3 -51.7 -51.4 -51.6 -51.5 -51.8 -51.6 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 3 3 3 2 3 2 2 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 60 58 55 58 53 48 44 40 38 36 32 31 31 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 22 20 22 20 16 18 15 13 12 11 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 75 76 76 72 65 61 46 40 31 38 34 37 36 200 MB DIV 13 27 10 0 11 18 -22 -6 -14 -23 -4 -12 2 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -3 0 1 3 0 5 2 4 -3 4 -2 LAND (KM) 1226 1271 1314 1355 1403 1522 1711 1880 2050 2250 1963 1671 1394 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.9 15.1 15.3 15.5 16.1 16.5 16.7 16.9 17.1 17.4 17.4 17.2 LONG(DEG W) 117.8 118.7 119.5 120.5 121.4 123.6 126.3 128.8 131.1 133.6 136.3 139.1 141.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 9 10 12 13 12 12 13 13 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 1 3 2 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -9. -18. -28. -37. -44. -49. -54. -57. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -7. -6. -2. 1. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. -2. -7. -5. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -2. -4. -11. -26. -34. -49. -62. -73. -83. -90. -95. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052012 EMILIA 07/11/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)