* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILIA EP052012 07/12/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 99 95 88 83 68 52 40 24 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 100 99 95 88 83 68 52 40 24 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 100 100 97 91 83 70 59 49 40 32 26 21 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 19 19 13 11 6 5 9 8 12 8 11 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -6 -1 0 2 7 8 6 4 7 9 7 SHEAR DIR 85 106 106 95 92 107 247 263 253 272 266 257 262 SST (C) 27.0 26.6 26.1 25.4 24.7 24.2 24.2 24.3 23.7 23.3 23.3 23.7 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 133 129 124 118 110 105 106 106 100 96 96 101 106 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.1 -52.1 -51.6 -50.9 -51.6 -51.4 -51.7 -51.4 -51.7 -51.9 -51.8 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 60 54 57 54 52 47 40 41 34 37 33 31 29 GFS VTEX (KT) 23 21 21 19 20 18 15 14 11 11 8 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 66 66 62 62 58 52 33 36 18 27 13 30 25 200 MB DIV 22 -2 -7 12 33 -12 -26 -16 -27 -7 6 -9 1 700-850 TADV -6 -2 -1 0 3 1 1 2 5 -1 2 -3 -2 LAND (KM) 1267 1312 1350 1400 1459 1625 1804 1983 2163 2089 1813 1521 1234 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.2 15.4 15.7 16.0 16.4 16.6 16.8 17.1 17.4 17.6 17.6 17.4 LONG(DEG W) 118.6 119.6 120.5 121.6 122.7 125.1 127.7 130.2 132.6 135.1 137.7 140.5 143.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 509 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -11. -22. -31. -39. -46. -52. -56. -59. -63. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -8. -6. -3. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -3. -5. -10. -11. -16. -16. -20. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -5. -12. -17. -32. -48. -60. -76. -85. -96.-103.-109. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052012 EMILIA 07/12/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)