* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILIA EP052012 07/12/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 89 82 75 68 57 45 32 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 95 89 82 75 68 57 45 32 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 95 91 85 79 74 64 55 46 37 30 24 19 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 15 14 6 7 2 8 5 14 14 11 15 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -2 0 1 9 8 11 3 2 6 4 3 SHEAR DIR 91 110 115 95 112 123 254 253 240 265 245 259 255 SST (C) 26.6 26.1 25.4 24.9 24.5 24.2 24.4 23.9 23.4 23.4 23.5 23.9 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 130 125 117 112 108 106 108 102 97 97 98 102 106 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -51.7 -51.2 -51.4 -51.5 -51.5 -51.6 -51.6 -52.0 -51.7 -51.7 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 700-500 MB RH 54 54 52 50 48 43 40 36 36 33 33 31 29 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 22 20 18 17 16 15 12 11 10 9 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 67 67 64 65 69 47 41 20 29 19 28 28 30 200 MB DIV 3 1 -5 16 14 -11 -9 -25 -19 -7 -18 0 -25 700-850 TADV -3 -2 1 0 0 0 5 0 3 -1 3 -3 -1 LAND (KM) 1326 1375 1431 1497 1569 1742 1919 2109 2189 1913 1636 1375 1133 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.3 15.5 15.7 15.9 16.3 16.6 16.9 17.1 17.3 17.6 17.6 17.3 LONG(DEG W) 119.7 120.8 121.8 122.9 124.0 126.5 129.2 131.8 134.2 136.8 139.4 141.9 144.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 12 13 13 12 12 12 12 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 514 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -12. -21. -29. -37. -44. -49. -52. -55. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -4. -4. -1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -12. -14. -14. -17. -18. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -13. -20. -27. -38. -50. -63. -73. -82. -90. -97.-104. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052012 EMILIA 07/12/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)