* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIX EP062012 07/12/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 42 47 54 60 63 62 56 52 44 38 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 42 47 54 60 63 62 56 52 44 38 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 36 38 41 44 45 44 42 40 37 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 10 10 13 16 17 22 15 15 5 4 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 -3 -2 0 -1 0 -2 1 -3 0 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 21 35 25 34 38 50 47 62 58 48 56 47 179 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.0 27.7 27.2 26.5 25.3 24.0 22.4 21.0 POT. INT. (KT) 152 150 149 147 146 143 140 134 127 116 102 85 70 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -52.4 -52.8 -52.6 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 5 4 3 3 2 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 82 82 84 82 82 82 80 82 81 79 72 69 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 14 15 15 16 18 20 21 19 18 15 15 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -11 -10 -17 -18 -8 2 17 18 26 21 17 8 200 MB DIV 96 82 87 98 83 75 63 42 38 31 -4 0 0 700-850 TADV -6 -5 -2 -4 -7 -6 -5 -3 -6 -9 -4 -4 0 LAND (KM) 609 621 637 647 656 700 779 761 751 768 803 776 746 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 7 8 8 7 6 7 9 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 56 57 54 48 37 19 11 10 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 18. 22. 23. 23. 21. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -1. -2. -3. -2. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 12. 10. 9. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 17. 24. 30. 33. 32. 26. 22. 14. 8. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062012 SIX 07/12/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 50.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 60.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.1 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)