* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FABIO EP062012 07/12/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 46 51 55 65 69 69 61 58 53 46 37 V (KT) LAND 35 40 46 51 55 65 69 69 61 58 53 46 37 V (KT) LGE mod 35 39 43 47 50 53 54 53 50 46 43 40 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 7 9 14 18 14 16 19 15 9 0 2 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -1 0 0 1 2 -1 -1 -2 3 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 43 12 11 35 51 62 43 47 55 77 19 236 295 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.4 26.8 26.1 25.4 24.3 22.7 20.9 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 147 146 144 141 137 130 123 116 105 89 70 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.2 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -51.6 -52.3 -51.7 -52.7 -52.2 -52.8 -52.3 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 6 5 4 3 4 2 3 2 0 700-500 MB RH 83 84 84 82 83 81 81 80 79 78 75 70 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 16 17 16 16 19 20 22 19 20 18 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -18 -22 -15 -11 -3 2 12 9 13 3 -3 0 200 MB DIV 63 81 84 74 63 112 57 63 33 42 -7 3 -7 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -4 -9 -5 -3 -5 -3 -6 -5 2 0 1 LAND (KM) 645 662 675 679 692 754 793 809 871 889 851 807 805 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.8 14.0 14.4 14.7 15.6 16.1 16.5 16.7 17.4 18.5 19.8 21.3 LONG(DEG W) 106.9 107.5 108.0 108.7 109.3 110.9 112.3 113.7 115.1 116.2 117.0 118.0 119.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 7 8 8 7 7 7 6 7 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 57 53 49 38 27 13 9 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 507 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 18. 18. 18. 16. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 6. 9. 11. 7. 8. 6. 4. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 16. 20. 30. 34. 34. 26. 23. 18. 11. 2. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062012 FABIO 07/12/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 44.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.9 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 3.9%)