* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILIA EP052012 07/12/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 85 79 74 66 54 44 34 23 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 90 85 79 74 66 54 44 34 23 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 90 86 81 77 72 64 55 45 37 30 25 22 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 7 5 1 1 6 6 11 8 9 13 17 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 0 4 8 7 6 5 3 5 3 4 2 SHEAR DIR 99 74 89 139 95 219 232 230 242 215 251 252 260 SST (C) 25.7 25.2 25.0 24.8 24.6 24.8 24.5 23.8 24.0 24.3 24.6 24.7 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 121 116 114 112 110 112 109 102 104 106 109 111 112 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.5 -51.8 -51.7 -51.9 -51.5 -51.7 -51.5 -51.7 -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 52 51 46 41 41 37 32 34 34 35 36 35 33 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 21 18 19 15 15 14 14 12 11 10 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 70 75 73 65 58 43 36 43 40 47 45 47 51 200 MB DIV 12 24 10 -26 -24 -4 -21 -11 2 -14 0 -23 -23 700-850 TADV 1 0 2 1 -4 3 0 3 -2 1 -2 0 -1 LAND (KM) 1472 1556 1645 1735 1831 1973 2201 2183 1895 1637 1413 1164 889 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.1 15.1 15.3 15.5 15.9 15.6 15.6 15.9 15.9 15.6 15.6 15.9 LONG(DEG W) 121.9 123.1 124.2 125.5 126.8 129.2 131.8 134.6 137.3 139.8 142.1 144.6 147.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 13 12 12 13 14 13 12 12 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 497 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -8. -12. -19. -26. -33. -39. -43. -45. -48. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -5. -7. -8. -9. -12. -12. -14. -15. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -11. -16. -24. -36. -46. -56. -67. -72. -79. -85. -91. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052012 EMILIA 07/12/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 63.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)