* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FABIO EP062012 07/12/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 54 58 63 66 70 65 60 53 44 35 26 V (KT) LAND 45 50 54 58 63 66 70 65 60 53 44 35 26 V (KT) LGE mod 45 49 53 56 58 60 59 56 51 46 40 35 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 15 18 13 16 15 17 17 8 7 3 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 0 0 0 3 -2 -1 -1 -1 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 18 23 44 61 54 43 51 67 49 48 2 314 277 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.5 26.8 26.0 25.3 24.3 22.6 21.2 20.3 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 145 144 142 138 130 121 114 105 87 72 62 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.5 -52.0 -51.9 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 83 83 82 81 78 78 78 76 80 77 71 64 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 16 16 17 20 18 21 19 20 19 17 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -21 -11 -5 -4 -2 6 8 18 6 0 0 3 200 MB DIV 90 82 65 56 71 60 56 49 13 22 -1 -4 -22 700-850 TADV -4 -6 -10 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -8 -3 -2 0 0 LAND (KM) 669 671 684 711 745 803 809 825 844 825 792 758 728 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.4 14.8 15.2 15.6 16.0 16.5 17.0 17.6 18.6 19.9 21.2 22.3 LONG(DEG W) 107.9 108.6 109.3 110.1 110.8 112.3 113.7 114.8 115.8 116.7 117.9 118.6 119.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 5 6 8 8 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 58 46 34 27 21 16 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 508 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 6. 3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 4. 4. 7. 6. 6. 5. 2. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 13. 18. 21. 25. 20. 15. 8. -1. -10. -19. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062012 FABIO 07/12/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 3.9%)