* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILIA EP052012 07/13/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 70 62 53 46 32 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 70 62 53 46 32 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 80 72 66 61 57 49 41 34 28 24 20 17 15 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 3 3 5 6 6 11 5 11 11 15 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 3 5 7 4 4 -1 4 1 0 0 1 SHEAR DIR 136 114 135 140 194 250 236 263 253 244 262 276 271 SST (C) 25.1 24.9 24.7 24.5 24.5 24.7 24.1 23.6 24.0 24.2 24.3 24.5 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 114 112 110 108 108 110 105 100 104 104 105 108 111 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.8 -51.8 -51.8 -51.3 -51.8 -51.5 -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 51 46 45 43 41 39 35 36 35 35 31 30 30 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 19 20 17 17 14 13 14 11 10 9 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 71 70 60 55 47 38 34 42 39 46 35 41 32 200 MB DIV 14 -3 -31 -25 -17 -24 -24 7 2 2 -6 -28 -14 700-850 TADV 1 -1 -2 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 -2 0 LAND (KM) 1536 1610 1688 1778 1855 2011 2184 2123 1827 1590 1416 1216 980 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.7 15.8 16.0 16.3 16.3 16.1 16.1 16.4 16.3 16.2 LONG(DEG W) 123.0 124.1 125.1 126.3 127.5 129.8 132.2 135.0 137.9 140.2 141.8 143.8 146.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 12 12 11 12 14 12 9 9 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 507 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -9. -15. -21. -28. -33. -36. -38. -40. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -12. -13. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -9. -9. -8. -6. -5. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -4. -4. -9. -11. -11. -14. -15. -17. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -4. -3. 0. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -10. -18. -27. -34. -47. -56. -63. -71. -76. -81. -85. -88. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052012 EMILIA 07/13/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 55.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)