* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FABIO EP062012 07/13/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 55 60 64 64 68 69 64 60 53 45 38 27 V (KT) LAND 50 55 60 64 64 68 69 64 60 53 45 38 27 V (KT) LGE mod 50 54 58 60 61 61 59 56 52 49 45 39 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 17 19 15 16 17 17 13 11 5 2 5 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 3 1 2 -2 0 -2 -2 1 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 38 45 44 31 45 53 53 71 62 93 335 300 238 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.4 27.0 26.3 25.6 24.7 23.5 21.9 20.6 POT. INT. (KT) 146 144 143 141 140 136 132 125 118 108 96 80 66 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -52.5 -52.0 -52.4 -51.9 -52.8 -52.3 -53.0 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 84 83 83 83 81 80 78 79 80 80 74 72 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 17 18 19 16 19 20 18 18 17 15 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -20 -15 -16 -13 -15 -6 -2 0 -16 -30 -34 -30 200 MB DIV 81 63 62 79 70 53 58 8 22 -2 -4 -16 -20 700-850 TADV -4 -7 -8 -5 -5 -5 -3 -7 -3 -3 -1 -1 1 LAND (KM) 736 748 768 801 839 883 908 925 928 894 827 787 791 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.1 14.4 14.8 15.1 15.4 15.7 16.3 17.1 18.1 19.2 20.5 21.8 LONG(DEG W) 108.6 109.3 110.0 110.8 111.5 112.8 114.1 115.4 116.4 117.1 117.6 118.4 119.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 6 7 6 6 6 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 53 47 40 28 18 13 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 509 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 3. 0. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 0. 3. 5. 2. 3. 1. -2. -3. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 14. 14. 18. 19. 14. 10. 3. -5. -12. -23. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062012 FABIO 07/13/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 91.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.4 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 3.9%)