* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FABIO EP062012 07/13/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 61 63 63 64 62 58 53 45 39 29 20 V (KT) LAND 55 58 61 63 63 64 62 58 53 45 39 29 20 V (KT) LGE mod 55 58 61 61 61 59 55 51 48 44 39 33 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 21 16 17 23 22 16 11 9 10 3 7 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 4 2 0 0 0 -3 -3 -3 3 0 2 SHEAR DIR 40 39 30 47 32 58 61 51 12 344 335 275 243 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.2 26.6 26.0 25.4 24.4 22.9 21.4 20.4 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 142 141 139 134 128 122 115 105 90 74 64 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 6 5 4 5 4 3 3 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 84 84 82 80 78 78 78 78 76 72 67 60 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 18 20 19 19 20 19 19 18 16 16 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -16 -19 -18 -16 -11 -6 -2 -12 -31 -44 -55 -43 200 MB DIV 46 44 76 70 48 46 24 18 24 4 0 -17 0 700-850 TADV -9 -7 -7 -3 -8 -6 -4 -5 -3 -4 0 -1 3 LAND (KM) 745 761 784 826 869 875 896 919 935 900 823 800 801 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.4 14.7 15.0 15.3 15.7 16.1 16.6 17.3 18.3 19.6 20.8 22.0 LONG(DEG W) 109.2 109.9 110.5 111.3 112.0 113.4 114.6 115.7 116.7 117.5 118.0 118.8 119.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 8 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 47 41 32 21 15 10 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -3. -7. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 8. 9. 7. 3. -2. -10. -16. -26. -35. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062012 FABIO 07/13/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 78.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)