* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILIA EP052012 07/13/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 49 42 39 33 25 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 49 42 39 33 25 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 48 43 40 37 32 27 24 21 18 16 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 3 2 3 3 2 8 6 12 18 27 28 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 2 3 3 3 0 2 1 0 0 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 57 191 240 287 311 293 265 262 232 245 257 259 264 SST (C) 24.7 24.5 24.6 24.8 24.7 23.9 23.7 24.0 24.3 24.5 24.7 24.9 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 111 108 109 112 111 103 101 104 107 109 111 113 115 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 -52.3 -52.1 -51.9 -51.9 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 45 44 39 40 39 35 36 32 33 33 34 32 31 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 16 13 15 13 13 12 11 9 8 8 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 68 64 54 54 46 37 39 32 40 32 36 26 24 200 MB DIV -7 -26 -12 -9 -13 -28 4 -3 -17 -18 -32 -17 -30 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 2 0 1 -2 0 -3 -2 -4 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 1713 1803 1877 1962 2050 2273 2022 1728 1450 1185 927 690 490 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.6 15.7 15.8 15.9 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.3 16.3 16.3 16.3 16.3 LONG(DEG W) 125.4 126.6 127.7 129.0 130.2 133.1 136.0 138.8 141.5 144.1 146.7 149.2 151.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 12 12 13 14 13 13 12 12 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -14. -14. -15. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 8. 6. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -9. -10. -9. -9. -7. -6. -5. -6. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -13. -16. -22. -30. -40. -46. -52. -57. -63. -66. -68. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052012 EMILIA 07/13/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 15.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)