* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FABIO EP062012 07/13/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 59 61 63 63 61 58 49 38 30 20 DIS V (KT) LAND 55 58 59 61 63 63 61 58 49 38 30 20 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 57 58 58 58 56 52 48 44 39 33 27 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 13 18 20 17 19 14 15 13 9 7 3 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 0 -1 3 -2 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 39 37 40 40 63 55 44 26 21 5 343 274 248 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.2 26.5 26.1 25.6 24.6 23.2 21.8 20.6 19.8 POT. INT. (KT) 144 141 140 138 135 127 123 118 108 93 78 66 60 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.6 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.0 -52.4 -52.3 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 85 82 81 77 82 79 78 74 74 67 66 61 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 21 19 19 20 20 20 20 19 15 15 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -19 -15 -18 -12 -4 -9 -15 -33 -51 -60 -52 -50 200 MB DIV 45 75 63 51 51 44 4 28 -2 -14 -7 -14 -5 700-850 TADV -9 -7 -5 -11 -6 -3 -7 -10 -2 -4 -3 0 -2 LAND (KM) 753 789 828 838 836 892 957 997 986 959 915 869 804 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.1 15.4 15.7 16.0 16.2 16.4 17.0 17.9 19.0 20.2 21.6 23.0 LONG(DEG W) 110.2 110.9 111.6 112.4 113.2 114.7 116.0 117.2 118.3 119.2 119.7 120.3 121.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 8 8 8 7 6 7 7 6 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 36 25 18 18 14 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -3. -6. -11. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. -2. -3. -6. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 6. 3. -6. -17. -25. -35. -44. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062012 FABIO 07/13/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)