* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILIA EP052012 07/13/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 39 34 31 26 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 39 34 31 26 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 39 35 31 29 25 21 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 2 3 4 3 9 10 9 13 20 23 30 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 4 2 3 -1 0 1 1 0 0 0 3 SHEAR DIR 193 277 280 292 306 268 283 231 244 243 253 254 266 SST (C) 24.6 24.6 24.8 24.7 24.4 23.7 23.9 24.1 24.4 24.6 24.8 25.0 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 109 109 112 111 108 101 103 105 108 110 112 114 115 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.0 -52.3 -52.1 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 4 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 43 40 40 39 37 34 33 31 30 29 30 30 30 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 13 13 14 12 11 10 9 8 7 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 65 55 52 47 41 40 29 35 33 30 27 20 12 200 MB DIV -16 -10 -6 -6 -20 -7 9 -18 -19 -32 -33 -31 -25 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -2 0 -6 -4 -5 -4 -2 LAND (KM) 1823 1896 1973 2066 2164 2159 1886 1594 1304 1021 773 552 376 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.6 15.7 15.9 16.0 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.4 16.4 16.3 16.3 16.4 LONG(DEG W) 126.7 127.9 129.0 130.4 131.7 134.7 137.3 140.1 142.9 145.7 148.3 150.8 153.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -6. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 7. 8. 8. 6. 4. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. PERSISTENCE -3. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -10. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -13. -13. -13. -13. -14. -14. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -14. -19. -28. -37. -44. -49. -53. -57. -61. -64. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052012 EMILIA 07/13/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 5.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)