* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FABIO EP062012 07/13/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 74 76 76 76 72 67 61 49 39 26 18 DIS V (KT) LAND 70 74 76 76 76 72 67 61 49 39 26 18 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 75 77 77 75 68 61 55 48 40 33 27 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 18 20 15 15 14 11 12 6 2 4 7 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 1 1 1 -1 -1 0 2 -2 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 34 43 43 55 62 64 30 25 17 4 289 230 221 SST (C) 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.1 26.6 26.0 25.5 24.4 23.0 21.8 21.0 20.1 19.5 POT. INT. (KT) 142 139 137 134 129 122 117 106 91 78 70 61 60 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 4 4 3 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 81 81 78 81 79 79 75 74 69 66 58 54 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 17 19 19 20 19 19 19 17 16 13 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -11 -15 -11 -4 1 -4 -14 -32 -28 -43 -35 -21 200 MB DIV 61 64 55 40 29 13 11 12 -18 1 -14 1 0 700-850 TADV -10 -6 -10 -6 -5 -5 -8 -4 -4 -1 0 4 0 LAND (KM) 776 820 810 823 845 904 967 969 975 958 931 858 812 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.7 16.0 16.2 16.4 16.7 17.2 18.1 19.1 20.2 21.1 22.4 23.8 LONG(DEG W) 111.0 111.8 112.5 113.4 114.2 115.6 117.0 118.3 119.5 120.2 120.6 121.1 121.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 7 7 8 7 7 6 6 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 24 19 20 13 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -9. -15. -20. -25. -31. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. -4. -5. -9. -10. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 6. 6. 2. -3. -9. -21. -31. -44. -52. -62. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062012 FABIO 07/13/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.9 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)