* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILIA EP052012 07/14/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 41 38 33 30 22 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 41 38 33 30 22 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 41 38 35 32 28 24 21 19 16 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 5 4 4 2 10 7 12 18 28 34 30 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 2 2 4 -1 3 3 2 1 0 1 0 SHEAR DIR 269 286 305 296 283 259 222 228 236 245 238 246 269 SST (C) 24.7 24.9 24.7 24.4 24.0 24.0 24.3 24.6 24.8 24.9 25.2 25.6 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 111 113 111 108 104 104 107 111 113 113 116 120 120 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 40 39 38 36 34 33 32 33 30 33 29 31 33 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 14 12 12 12 11 9 9 8 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 59 58 51 48 43 47 35 41 29 25 13 16 8 200 MB DIV -7 -10 -6 -19 -23 6 -5 -15 -18 -32 -18 -11 -3 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 0 0 -2 3 -3 -1 -3 -4 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1908 1996 2089 2206 2292 1994 1712 1413 1100 843 644 492 434 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.6 15.7 15.8 15.8 15.7 15.8 15.6 15.3 15.0 14.9 14.9 15.0 LONG(DEG W) 127.9 129.2 130.5 132.0 133.5 136.4 139.1 142.1 145.4 148.4 151.1 153.6 155.9 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 14 14 13 13 15 15 14 13 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 4. 1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -17. -18. -19. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -12. -15. -23. -30. -35. -39. -45. -50. -55. -56. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052012 EMILIA 07/14/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)