* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FABIO EP062012 07/14/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 81 82 80 79 72 61 56 42 29 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 81 82 80 79 72 61 56 42 29 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 80 82 81 79 75 67 59 51 42 34 27 21 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 18 15 14 13 15 9 6 5 8 12 15 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -1 -2 0 -2 0 0 3 0 0 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 43 56 53 67 58 50 31 4 295 292 255 253 241 SST (C) 27.3 26.9 26.5 26.2 26.1 25.5 24.5 23.1 21.8 20.9 20.3 19.8 19.5 POT. INT. (KT) 137 133 128 125 123 117 107 92 78 68 62 58 57 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -52.5 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.2 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 4 3 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 79 81 78 78 76 74 72 70 63 54 50 45 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 20 23 21 22 20 17 20 17 15 14 11 8 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -18 -13 -7 -7 -3 -11 -27 -23 -30 -31 -23 -25 200 MB DIV 30 32 42 25 1 38 22 -10 -8 -22 -5 -17 -9 700-850 TADV -12 -4 -5 -3 -7 -7 -1 -2 0 4 6 6 3 LAND (KM) 835 861 898 934 976 1037 1064 1053 1017 956 895 835 795 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.1 16.2 16.4 16.5 17.0 17.7 18.8 20.1 21.3 22.2 23.1 23.8 LONG(DEG W) 112.9 113.9 114.8 115.6 116.4 117.8 119.2 120.2 120.8 121.2 121.4 121.5 121.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 13 4 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -3. -7. -14. -21. -29. -36. -42. -47. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -4. -2. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. -1. -5. -2. -5. -7. -9. -12. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 0. -1. -8. -19. -24. -38. -51. -62. -74. -85. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062012 FABIO 07/14/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)