* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILIA EP052012 07/14/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 41 39 35 30 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 43 41 39 35 30 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 44 43 41 39 35 31 28 25 21 18 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 2 2 2 1 2 8 13 21 26 24 26 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 5 4 2 4 9 5 2 2 2 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 298 347 2 242 239 354 228 217 231 239 261 274 265 SST (C) 24.8 24.5 24.1 23.8 24.0 24.5 24.7 24.8 24.9 25.2 25.6 25.7 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 112 109 105 102 104 109 112 113 114 117 121 121 121 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.1 -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -53.2 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 37 35 33 35 32 29 30 30 31 31 34 33 28 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 13 13 12 12 10 9 8 6 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 52 48 49 54 51 40 40 31 28 16 13 6 5 200 MB DIV 0 -22 -10 -7 2 4 -14 -9 -44 -31 -17 8 -5 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 1 1 1 -3 0 -1 -1 0 2 1 LAND (KM) 2112 2225 2311 2159 2007 1701 1401 1090 817 598 476 482 584 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.6 15.6 15.5 15.4 15.5 15.4 15.2 14.8 14.8 15.2 LONG(DEG W) 130.6 132.0 133.4 134.9 136.3 139.3 142.3 145.4 148.4 151.4 154.3 157.1 159.6 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 14 14 14 15 14 14 15 14 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 10. 8. 5. 3. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -10. -14. -23. -28. -35. -42. -46. -49. -52. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052012 EMILIA 07/14/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 1.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 26.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)