* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FABIO EP062012 07/14/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 81 81 80 78 72 63 52 39 27 15 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 81 81 80 78 72 63 52 39 27 15 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 80 81 79 76 73 64 56 47 39 32 25 20 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 15 13 10 6 7 9 7 3 7 13 16 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -3 0 4 0 -1 -1 2 0 0 0 2 SHEAR DIR 67 61 49 56 72 40 32 1 310 238 227 227 228 SST (C) 26.9 26.5 26.2 25.9 25.7 25.0 23.9 22.8 21.7 20.8 20.0 19.5 19.3 POT. INT. (KT) 132 128 125 121 119 112 100 88 77 67 59 58 58 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.6 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -51.9 -52.4 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 4 3 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 80 78 77 75 75 72 68 64 62 54 49 45 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 23 22 22 21 21 19 18 16 13 12 11 7 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -16 -11 -8 -9 -9 -29 -36 -41 -46 -44 -42 -48 200 MB DIV 28 38 32 -5 1 45 -2 26 -14 -7 3 -20 -8 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -5 -5 -7 -3 -1 0 0 3 1 4 -6 LAND (KM) 854 887 930 960 997 1043 1075 1063 1011 927 842 760 699 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.3 16.4 16.7 16.9 17.4 18.1 19.0 20.2 21.4 22.6 23.6 24.4 LONG(DEG W) 113.8 114.7 115.6 116.4 117.1 118.5 119.8 120.5 120.8 120.9 121.1 121.0 120.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 4 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -16. -24. -32. -39. -44. -49. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. 0. 1. 3. 5. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -5. -8. -10. -11. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. -2. -8. -17. -28. -41. -53. -65. -75. -86. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062012 FABIO 07/14/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)