* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FABIO EP062012 07/14/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 78 75 72 68 60 56 44 32 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 78 75 72 68 60 56 44 32 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 80 79 76 73 69 61 53 44 35 28 22 17 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 10 13 8 11 6 7 2 9 11 15 17 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 1 2 2 -1 4 -1 5 0 5 0 SHEAR DIR 55 60 51 80 61 49 345 165 250 220 224 208 211 SST (C) 26.5 26.2 26.1 25.8 25.5 24.6 23.3 22.1 21.1 20.2 19.6 19.2 19.0 POT. INT. (KT) 128 125 124 121 117 108 94 81 71 61 59 58 58 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 -52.3 -52.1 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 4 3 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 80 78 76 75 76 71 68 61 52 48 41 27 21 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 21 21 21 20 17 20 18 15 13 10 8 5 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -16 -17 -18 -9 -18 -36 -28 -30 -29 -22 -27 -35 200 MB DIV 42 26 3 4 22 14 28 7 -12 3 -4 -10 -9 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -6 -6 -7 -1 0 1 3 4 1 0 -5 LAND (KM) 892 927 969 1008 1043 1066 1044 1026 974 880 792 713 631 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.4 16.5 16.8 17.0 17.6 18.7 19.8 21.0 22.3 23.6 24.6 25.3 LONG(DEG W) 114.7 115.5 116.3 117.1 117.9 119.1 120.0 120.7 121.1 121.3 121.4 121.2 120.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 7 7 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -11. -18. -27. -36. -42. -48. -52. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -1. -5. -8. -10. -15. -18. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -8. -12. -20. -24. -36. -48. -61. -74. -85. -97. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062012 FABIO 07/14/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 86.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)