* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILIA EP052012 07/15/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 37 34 31 30 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 37 34 31 30 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 37 35 32 30 27 24 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 3 6 5 0 8 13 22 26 23 25 36 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 0 1 8 10 6 3 1 3 -1 -4 -6 SHEAR DIR 314 230 262 282 340 217 216 230 242 263 277 266 276 SST (C) 23.9 23.8 24.0 24.2 24.4 24.6 24.8 24.9 25.0 25.3 25.6 25.7 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 103 102 104 106 108 111 112 112 113 117 120 121 122 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -53.2 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 33 35 34 31 31 33 30 32 32 34 33 33 32 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 13 13 13 11 9 8 7 6 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 48 56 52 45 40 41 30 25 9 9 1 1 -7 200 MB DIV -20 -14 0 6 12 -12 -14 -49 -14 -6 -3 -6 -23 700-850 TADV 2 2 3 3 0 -1 0 -3 0 0 1 0 4 LAND (KM) 2274 2135 1997 1857 1718 1417 1148 922 729 554 438 478 653 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 15.7 15.6 15.6 15.6 15.5 15.1 15.0 15.2 15.2 15.0 15.0 14.9 LONG(DEG W) 133.7 135.1 136.4 137.8 139.1 142.1 145.0 147.5 149.6 152.1 155.0 157.5 160.2 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 13 13 15 13 11 11 13 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -3. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -15. -16. -17. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. -13. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -9. -10. -18. -25. -32. -39. -43. -46. -49. -52. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052012 EMILIA 07/15/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 10.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)