* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FABIO EP062012 07/15/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 91 91 88 86 75 61 47 32 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 90 91 91 88 86 75 61 47 32 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 90 91 89 84 79 67 55 44 34 26 21 16 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 13 6 11 6 6 6 2 10 12 13 13 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 0 -1 0 0 2 1 1 0 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 54 42 64 60 62 360 4 282 243 242 202 199 205 SST (C) 26.3 26.1 26.0 25.6 25.2 24.0 22.9 21.8 20.7 19.9 19.5 19.2 19.1 POT. INT. (KT) 126 124 123 118 114 101 89 78 67 59 58 58 58 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.2 -52.1 -52.7 -52.5 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 78 74 75 76 71 69 63 61 51 46 37 27 21 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 21 21 21 21 20 17 16 14 13 11 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -19 -21 -11 -14 -33 -39 -42 -45 -39 -36 -47 -53 200 MB DIV 28 9 2 22 25 5 24 7 -3 2 -11 -15 -32 700-850 TADV -3 -7 -7 -7 -5 0 0 2 6 0 2 -8 -6 LAND (KM) 925 966 1012 1052 1076 1083 1078 1034 945 842 754 684 632 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.5 16.6 16.9 17.1 18.0 18.9 20.1 21.5 22.8 23.8 24.5 25.1 LONG(DEG W) 115.4 116.2 117.0 117.8 118.6 119.8 120.6 121.0 121.3 121.3 121.1 120.8 120.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 7 7 6 5 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -9. -17. -27. -38. -47. -55. -60. -65. -71. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -17. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -2. -4. -15. -29. -43. -58. -72. -84. -97.-107. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062012 FABIO 07/15/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)