* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FABIO EP062012 07/15/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 89 86 81 73 63 48 32 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 90 89 86 81 73 63 48 32 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 90 90 86 81 75 62 50 39 30 23 18 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 11 7 4 6 7 6 9 8 5 7 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 -1 4 3 0 4 4 SHEAR DIR 50 68 48 61 11 2 321 283 254 258 230 224 213 SST (C) 26.1 25.9 25.7 25.2 24.6 23.4 22.3 21.2 20.3 19.8 19.5 19.3 19.0 POT. INT. (KT) 124 121 119 114 108 95 83 72 62 58 58 58 58 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.5 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.1 -52.1 -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 74 76 76 72 68 66 60 57 52 47 37 26 22 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 21 22 21 17 19 17 15 13 12 10 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -21 -14 -15 -19 -37 -42 -48 -44 -34 -35 -41 -42 200 MB DIV 19 23 26 19 4 18 8 -4 4 -1 -26 -15 -18 700-850 TADV -7 -6 -7 -2 -1 -1 1 6 5 0 0 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 969 1016 1062 1075 1095 1106 1071 998 896 827 802 753 698 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.7 16.8 17.2 17.5 18.4 19.5 20.8 22.1 23.1 23.7 24.5 25.4 LONG(DEG W) 116.3 117.1 117.9 118.7 119.4 120.5 121.0 121.2 121.3 121.4 121.6 121.6 121.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 7 6 4 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -10. -20. -31. -42. -52. -59. -64. -68. -74. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -4. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -18. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -9. -17. -27. -42. -58. -72. -83. -91.-101.-110. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062012 FABIO 07/15/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)