* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FABIO EP062012 07/15/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 88 84 77 73 55 41 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 90 88 84 77 73 55 41 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 90 87 82 76 69 55 43 32 25 19 15 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 9 3 4 8 8 5 8 11 8 8 10 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 0 0 0 0 4 1 4 4 7 7 8 SHEAR DIR 52 36 28 320 334 340 289 240 261 238 233 219 231 SST (C) 25.9 25.5 25.0 24.4 23.7 22.5 21.4 20.5 19.8 19.3 19.0 18.8 18.8 POT. INT. (KT) 122 117 112 106 98 86 74 65 59 59 58 56 56 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.5 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.7 -52.3 -52.4 -52.0 -51.8 -51.7 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 77 78 73 70 70 62 59 53 45 34 24 18 16 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 22 21 17 20 17 16 15 12 10 6 4 2 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -12 -17 -26 -37 -42 -47 -49 -41 -26 -32 -31 -29 200 MB DIV 21 29 33 -1 -3 28 9 -15 3 -6 -8 -17 -11 700-850 TADV -8 -10 -3 -1 -4 1 5 8 2 2 -1 -4 -2 LAND (KM) 1005 1037 1058 1070 1090 1084 1035 942 843 773 731 712 696 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.0 17.3 17.8 18.2 19.3 20.6 21.8 23.1 24.3 25.5 26.0 25.9 LONG(DEG W) 117.0 117.8 118.6 119.4 120.1 121.0 121.5 121.6 121.6 121.7 121.9 121.9 121.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 5 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -8. -13. -25. -36. -48. -58. -64. -68. -72. -78. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. -18. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -3. -2. -6. -7. -10. -13. -16. -22. -24. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -6. -13. -17. -35. -49. -65. -80. -91.-104.-113.-122. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062012 FABIO 07/15/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)