* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FABIO EP062012 07/16/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 74 67 60 51 35 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 74 67 60 51 35 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 80 74 68 61 54 42 32 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 2 3 9 9 6 9 13 17 17 17 18 20 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -3 -1 0 3 0 4 3 7 4 8 9 SHEAR DIR 49 287 310 295 283 253 238 245 234 233 224 225 219 SST (C) 24.7 24.1 23.5 22.8 22.2 21.2 20.3 19.6 19.1 18.9 18.8 18.6 18.6 POT. INT. (KT) 109 103 96 89 82 72 63 60 59 58 57 56 54 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -52.4 -52.9 -52.6 -52.6 -52.2 -51.8 -51.5 -51.8 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 74 70 68 62 61 59 50 45 34 24 17 15 13 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 18 19 20 18 17 14 12 9 6 4 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -27 -37 -40 -35 -47 -37 -26 -12 -17 -25 -26 -32 200 MB DIV 24 8 6 8 6 1 -7 1 -4 3 -7 -7 -13 700-850 TADV -3 0 -2 0 2 6 8 3 1 0 -6 -4 -11 LAND (KM) 1039 1057 1082 1079 1082 1019 910 809 717 653 614 598 607 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.0 18.4 19.0 19.6 20.8 22.2 23.6 25.0 25.8 26.1 26.6 26.6 LONG(DEG W) 118.7 119.5 120.2 120.7 121.2 121.5 121.6 121.6 121.5 121.2 120.9 120.9 121.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 3 2 1 0 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -10. -16. -29. -40. -50. -58. -63. -65. -68. -73. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -17. -19. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -9. -12. -16. -19. -23. -25. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -13. -20. -29. -45. -61. -76. -88. -99.-108.-116.-124. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062012 FABIO 07/16/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 16.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 69.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)