* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FABIO EP062012 07/16/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 62 55 47 39 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 62 55 47 39 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 63 56 49 43 33 25 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 2 7 7 5 5 5 11 16 14 13 14 12 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -2 -1 0 1 1 0 1 2 5 7 6 9 SHEAR DIR 320 310 324 292 275 285 238 249 238 244 232 232 220 SST (C) 24.2 23.6 23.0 22.3 21.7 20.8 19.8 19.3 18.9 18.7 18.8 18.7 18.8 POT. INT. (KT) 104 97 91 84 77 68 60 60 58 56 55 56 57 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -52.3 -52.5 -52.8 -52.4 -52.4 -51.9 -51.9 -51.7 -51.7 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 68 69 67 62 60 50 43 39 33 30 25 20 15 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 18 20 18 18 15 13 10 8 6 5 4 2 850 MB ENV VOR -36 -39 -39 -39 -40 -44 -29 -20 -21 -17 -30 -11 -10 200 MB DIV 6 11 11 12 4 -19 -12 -7 -9 -6 -20 -19 -16 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 3 5 1 5 3 1 0 -2 -2 -5 LAND (KM) 1039 1047 1061 1042 1029 947 827 707 611 563 562 554 607 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.5 18.9 19.6 20.2 21.4 22.9 24.4 25.7 26.2 26.0 26.2 25.8 LONG(DEG W) 119.2 119.8 120.4 120.7 121.0 121.2 121.2 121.0 120.7 120.4 120.3 120.3 120.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 6 7 8 7 5 1 0 1 3 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -9. -14. -26. -36. -45. -52. -55. -57. -59. -64. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -17. -19. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -1. -4. -6. -11. -13. -15. -18. -19. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -15. -23. -31. -49. -62. -76. -86. -92. -99.-105.-113. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062012 FABIO 07/16/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)