* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FABIO EP062012 07/16/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 57 49 41 33 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 57 49 41 33 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 58 51 45 39 30 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 6 5 7 12 17 11 10 8 9 7 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 0 1 1 0 2 2 6 6 8 7 8 SHEAR DIR 304 311 312 260 273 246 260 244 230 200 194 172 179 SST (C) 23.8 23.3 22.7 22.2 21.7 20.9 20.1 19.6 19.3 19.1 19.0 18.8 18.8 POT. INT. (KT) 99 94 88 83 77 69 60 59 58 56 56 56 57 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 69 66 62 59 56 50 41 34 30 25 23 22 17 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 19 18 17 16 14 10 8 5 4 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -42 -33 -28 -33 -37 -40 -28 -31 -33 -27 -15 -4 7 200 MB DIV 13 18 17 3 -15 -17 -12 -8 -3 -20 -9 -16 -6 700-850 TADV -1 3 5 3 4 6 0 -2 -2 -6 -3 -6 -2 LAND (KM) 1028 1023 1024 995 952 844 716 615 534 496 480 481 518 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 19.2 19.7 20.4 21.1 22.4 23.9 25.1 26.0 26.5 26.7 27.0 27.1 LONG(DEG W) 119.7 120.2 120.6 120.8 120.9 120.9 120.7 120.4 120.0 119.8 119.7 119.8 120.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 4 2 1 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -9. -13. -24. -33. -41. -48. -51. -52. -55. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -19. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -8. -12. -15. -17. -20. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -3. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -16. -24. -32. -48. -64. -76. -86. -92. -99.-104.-109. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062012 FABIO 07/16/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)