* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FABIO EP062012 07/16/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 54 46 37 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 54 46 37 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 55 49 43 38 29 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 0 3 8 7 16 16 13 11 16 14 15 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 -1 0 -1 0 3 4 4 4 4 3 SHEAR DIR 311 154 199 287 250 238 244 227 202 174 176 166 169 SST (C) 23.2 22.6 22.0 21.5 21.0 20.1 19.7 19.4 19.2 18.8 18.7 18.7 18.7 POT. INT. (KT) 93 87 81 75 70 61 59 58 58 57 57 58 57 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -51.8 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 65 61 58 53 51 40 36 31 27 23 21 17 18 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 16 16 15 14 11 9 7 4 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -38 -31 -29 -37 -28 -29 -13 -25 -28 -26 -14 -11 12 200 MB DIV 3 10 12 -4 -21 -14 2 -11 3 -6 -6 -4 -9 700-850 TADV 3 3 2 3 2 4 0 0 0 -4 -3 -2 1 LAND (KM) 1009 992 978 917 853 723 621 561 503 472 468 525 571 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 20.0 20.7 21.5 22.2 23.8 25.0 25.8 26.3 27.0 27.2 27.3 27.6 LONG(DEG W) 120.1 120.5 120.8 120.8 120.8 120.7 120.4 120.2 119.8 119.7 119.7 120.3 121.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 7 7 7 5 4 3 2 2 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 8 CX,CY: -3/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -9. -15. -25. -34. -41. -47. -49. -50. -52. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -14. -15. -18. -19. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -11. -15. -18. -20. -21. -21. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -14. -23. -31. -49. -62. -74. -85. -93. -99.-105.-109. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062012 FABIO 07/16/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)