* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FABIO EP062012 07/17/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 39 31 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 39 31 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 39 34 30 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 5 11 12 15 17 20 17 12 15 12 14 10 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 1 0 0 2 4 0 1 2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 273 254 253 246 232 237 226 215 178 181 166 158 148 SST (C) 21.9 21.3 20.8 20.4 20.1 19.6 19.2 18.8 18.4 18.0 17.8 17.6 17.4 POT. INT. (KT) 80 74 68 64 60 59 59 58 58 58 57 57 57 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -52.3 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 700-500 MB RH 64 57 52 46 44 40 31 29 24 25 27 28 29 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 12 11 10 7 5 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -34 -35 -22 -27 -24 -15 -28 -29 -20 -1 16 30 28 200 MB DIV 6 -3 -14 -8 -5 8 -1 -2 -7 -7 0 -6 -2 700-850 TADV 5 3 4 7 4 -3 0 -4 -1 -1 4 2 7 LAND (KM) 926 860 792 729 669 566 488 423 355 299 265 296 313 LAT (DEG N) 20.9 21.8 22.6 23.3 24.0 25.2 26.2 27.0 27.5 28.3 28.7 29.0 29.4 LONG(DEG W) 120.3 120.4 120.4 120.3 120.2 119.9 119.6 119.2 118.6 118.3 118.2 118.7 119.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 9 CX,CY: -1/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -9. -14. -23. -29. -34. -38. -38. -38. -39. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -3. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -14. -15. -17. -19. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -14. -22. -32. -47. -60. -71. -79. -82. -87. -91. -95. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062012 FABIO 07/17/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)