* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FABIO EP062012 07/17/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 34 26 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 34 26 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 34 30 26 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 12 13 17 20 17 13 19 18 17 16 14 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 2 0 1 3 5 1 4 7 7 4 N/A SHEAR DIR 243 244 231 226 237 211 212 186 189 181 176 163 N/A SST (C) 21.2 20.8 20.4 20.0 19.7 19.2 18.8 18.2 17.8 17.8 17.9 18.6 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 73 68 64 60 60 59 59 58 56 58 58 59 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -52.6 -52.5 -52.1 -52.2 -51.9 -51.9 -52.0 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 49 44 40 40 33 31 25 25 23 20 23 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 11 11 8 6 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -35 -17 -16 -18 -13 -21 -26 -17 -9 6 24 21 N/A 200 MB DIV -1 -4 -3 -3 -7 4 -3 -4 -5 -5 1 -7 N/A 700-850 TADV 3 5 5 6 -4 -10 -6 -11 -4 -8 -1 -3 N/A LAND (KM) 858 803 751 674 601 516 423 393 327 362 436 518 N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.9 22.6 23.3 24.1 24.9 26.2 27.0 28.0 28.5 28.7 28.8 27.6 N/A LONG(DEG W) 120.5 120.6 120.6 120.4 120.1 119.9 119.2 119.2 118.8 119.3 120.2 120.4 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 8 8 8 5 5 4 2 3 4 6 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 9 CX,CY: -1/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -10. -14. -22. -27. -31. -35. -35. -34. -35. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -3. -6. -8. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -14. -15. -17. -19. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -14. -22. -31. -46. -58. -69. -77. -82. -88. -93. -97. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062012 FABIO 07/17/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 25.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 24.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)