* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FABIO EP062012 07/17/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 29 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 29 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 31 26 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 14 18 23 20 19 17 17 17 15 13 19 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 0 2 4 5 6 11 8 13 12 2 N/A SHEAR DIR 245 239 227 243 239 229 216 199 189 180 183 156 N/A SST (C) 20.8 20.3 19.9 19.7 19.4 18.9 18.2 17.6 17.2 17.1 16.8 17.5 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 69 63 60 60 59 59 59 58 58 58 57 59 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -52.6 -52.1 -51.8 -51.8 -51.4 -51.5 -51.6 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 45 39 36 39 31 26 25 21 20 21 21 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 10 9 7 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -13 -15 -14 -11 -22 -17 -14 2 16 33 20 N/A 200 MB DIV -4 -5 0 -4 1 -8 -4 7 1 6 5 -4 N/A 700-850 TADV 6 10 5 1 -4 3 -3 -1 -4 -2 0 0 N/A LAND (KM) 806 736 672 608 548 474 398 340 295 338 359 448 N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.6 23.5 24.3 25.0 25.7 26.9 27.9 29.0 29.8 30.2 30.7 29.5 N/A LONG(DEG W) 120.6 120.6 120.5 120.3 120.0 119.7 119.2 119.2 119.1 119.8 120.3 120.7 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 8 7 7 6 6 4 3 4 3 6 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -9. -14. -21. -25. -28. -32. -31. -30. -30. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -14. -15. -17. -19. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -12. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -14. -22. -31. -46. -59. -70. -78. -82. -88. -94. -99. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062012 FABIO 07/17/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 11.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)