* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FABIO EP062012 07/18/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 26 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 22 24 21 20 19 18 18 17 18 15 16 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 2 1 2 8 5 5 5 4 6 0 N/A SHEAR DIR 245 236 244 242 230 225 194 193 188 185 181 166 N/A SST (C) 20.3 19.9 19.7 19.4 19.1 18.4 17.8 17.5 17.7 17.5 17.3 17.4 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 63 60 60 60 60 59 59 58 57 57 57 60 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -52.7 -51.9 -51.7 -51.4 -51.4 -51.4 -51.1 -51.7 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 2 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 41 38 36 31 27 26 25 28 28 27 31 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 9 9 7 6 3 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -10 -4 -5 -14 -23 -15 -4 14 23 34 22 N/A 200 MB DIV -9 -4 1 3 -1 -6 0 -3 4 5 -1 -4 N/A 700-850 TADV 11 10 5 0 0 0 -6 -4 -3 0 0 -2 N/A LAND (KM) 729 672 621 561 509 432 307 235 165 195 199 252 N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.5 24.3 25.0 25.7 26.4 27.6 28.5 29.6 30.2 30.5 31.0 29.6 N/A LONG(DEG W) 120.5 120.5 120.4 120.2 119.9 119.4 118.5 118.3 117.8 118.3 118.6 118.5 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 4 2 3 3 7 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 9 CX,CY: 0/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -9. -13. -19. -22. -25. -28. -27. -25. -25. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -5. -9. -11. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. -18. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -5. -10. -12. -13. -13. -12. -13. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -13. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -13. -21. -28. -45. -56. -67. -75. -80. -84. -89. -93. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062012 FABIO 07/18/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 9.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 55.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)