* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FABIO EP062012 07/18/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 22 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SUBT N/A SHEAR (KT) 29 25 21 21 18 18 16 16 14 14 10 6 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 2 4 7 6 10 6 5 7 7 2 N/A SHEAR DIR 247 239 226 220 224 199 198 193 189 183 176 158 N/A SST (C) 19.5 19.3 19.1 18.9 18.6 18.1 17.6 17.3 17.3 17.0 16.8 17.3 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 60 59 59 59 59 58 58 58 57 58 57 60 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.2 -52.8 -52.2 -51.9 -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 -52.0 -51.9 -52.1 -52.7 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 35 28 24 23 23 25 25 27 27 30 33 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 7 5 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -3 1 -3 -13 -20 -23 -11 10 15 26 33 30 N/A 200 MB DIV -7 -3 -1 0 -2 -10 0 -8 -7 -2 -1 0 N/A 700-850 TADV 7 -3 -3 2 0 -9 -3 -4 5 0 4 3 N/A LAND (KM) 639 617 600 559 514 423 335 278 239 308 268 291 N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.3 25.9 26.5 27.0 27.5 28.3 28.9 29.8 30.3 30.5 31.2 29.7 N/A LONG(DEG W) 120.8 120.9 120.9 120.6 120.3 119.8 119.1 118.9 118.7 119.6 119.5 119.0 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 6 5 4 5 4 2 3 2 8 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 9 CX,CY: 0/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 684 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -8. -11. -17. -19. -22. -25. -23. -21. -21. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 0. -4. -8. -9. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -18. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -11. -14. -15. -16. -17. -18. -17. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -16. -23. -37. -50. -61. -70. -75. -79. -82. -86. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062012 FABIO 07/18/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 1.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 50.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)