* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIVE AL052012 08/01/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 35 37 41 46 50 54 56 59 61 64 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 35 37 41 46 50 54 56 59 61 64 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 35 36 38 40 42 47 52 58 65 71 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 14 16 13 16 13 10 6 15 9 15 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 9 5 2 4 0 0 -1 0 0 -2 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 300 290 290 290 277 272 273 255 261 283 273 268 268 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 132 132 133 136 139 140 140 141 146 145 147 149 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 133 135 138 140 141 139 142 145 144 143 143 143 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -53.8 -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 -53.6 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -52.7 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 700-500 MB RH 64 61 60 59 58 55 56 56 62 59 60 62 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 10 10 11 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 13 850 MB ENV VOR 0 7 7 3 11 27 23 31 37 48 51 60 46 200 MB DIV 1 20 26 14 29 49 35 31 50 41 54 43 46 700-850 TADV -14 -17 -12 -12 -12 -9 -5 -3 1 -2 2 -1 0 LAND (KM) 912 876 850 840 797 536 420 431 239 188 79 24 56 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 48.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 15 15 15 14 15 15 14 13 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 29 21 23 27 31 55 51 53 54 63 74 109 94 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 713 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. -14. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 11. 16. 20. 24. 26. 29. 31. 34. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052012 FIVE 08/01/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052012 FIVE 08/01/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)