* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIVE AL052012 08/02/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 34 38 43 48 51 53 59 65 69 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 32 34 38 43 48 51 53 59 65 69 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 31 31 32 34 37 42 47 55 65 76 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 17 17 14 14 14 10 10 4 12 2 7 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 3 2 0 -1 -2 0 -1 -5 0 -2 3 SHEAR DIR 288 293 285 267 267 271 245 283 216 291 218 320 242 SST (C) 27.6 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 134 135 136 139 140 140 140 144 146 144 147 146 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 137 138 141 143 142 141 144 145 143 144 139 137 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.8 -53.8 -53.5 -53.3 -53.6 -53.3 -53.5 -52.9 -53.2 -52.5 -53.0 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 8 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 63 64 60 59 59 60 62 59 64 65 65 60 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 10 11 12 12 12 11 10 10 10 12 850 MB ENV VOR 2 0 -3 5 16 30 34 32 42 52 85 76 77 200 MB DIV 10 13 12 33 41 42 45 27 39 22 54 39 62 700-850 TADV -17 -16 -11 -10 -12 -2 -7 -5 0 -3 -1 -1 -6 LAND (KM) 869 830 820 759 616 410 444 303 267 155 151 49 92 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.7 13.0 13.3 13.6 14.1 14.7 15.3 15.7 16.2 16.8 17.3 17.7 LONG(DEG W) 49.8 51.4 52.9 54.5 56.1 59.3 62.5 65.5 68.5 71.5 74.5 77.0 79.0 STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 15 16 16 16 15 15 15 15 14 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 20 24 27 29 44 52 50 53 72 56 101 102 107 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 734 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 23. 29. 35. 39. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052012 FIVE 08/02/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 3% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052012 FIVE 08/02/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)