* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIVE AL052012 08/02/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 30 31 35 39 44 45 50 54 62 66 V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 30 31 35 39 44 45 50 54 62 66 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 30 30 31 34 38 44 51 60 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 20 18 18 19 11 13 7 10 7 6 5 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 0 0 0 -2 -3 -2 -2 -2 -1 0 -6 SHEAR DIR 288 284 272 264 258 265 271 310 283 289 280 306 294 SST (C) 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 135 137 139 140 140 140 141 145 146 145 146 145 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 139 141 142 142 142 141 145 145 143 142 137 135 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -53.6 -53.2 -53.2 -52.8 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 9 9 10 8 10 8 10 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 63 59 57 59 59 59 65 63 66 66 67 69 69 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 9 10 11 12 12 11 9 10 10 12 12 850 MB ENV VOR 1 -2 1 13 24 29 35 37 55 68 76 66 48 200 MB DIV 19 13 39 43 56 47 46 48 34 30 29 46 53 700-850 TADV -18 -11 -10 -11 -6 -1 -8 -2 -3 -2 -2 -3 -6 LAND (KM) 817 809 724 590 481 400 384 281 218 180 104 61 148 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.0 13.2 13.6 13.9 14.4 14.9 15.4 16.0 16.5 16.9 17.4 18.1 LONG(DEG W) 51.7 53.3 54.8 56.4 57.9 61.2 64.3 67.2 70.2 73.1 75.9 78.1 79.7 STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 15 15 16 16 15 14 15 14 12 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 30 34 35 44 51 44 46 61 68 54 99 113 124 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 757 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. -13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -1. -2. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 1. 5. 9. 14. 15. 20. 24. 32. 36. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052012 FIVE 08/02/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 23.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052012 FIVE 08/02/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)