* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIVE AL052012 08/02/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 36 40 46 49 53 57 64 71 75 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 36 40 46 49 53 57 64 71 75 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 31 32 34 37 41 46 53 63 76 88 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 18 15 15 12 9 11 5 8 6 7 6 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 -1 0 -4 0 -1 -6 0 -3 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 281 270 251 268 269 237 279 232 294 13 353 257 285 SST (C) 27.9 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.4 28.4 28.2 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 138 141 140 140 140 139 145 144 141 145 144 143 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 144 143 142 142 141 147 145 139 142 138 135 135 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.0 -53.5 -52.6 -53.1 -52.4 -53.0 -52.2 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 9 9 10 8 10 8 9 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 61 59 59 60 61 60 65 62 67 68 69 72 72 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 10 11 11 12 13 10 11 9 9 11 12 850 MB ENV VOR 0 3 16 25 23 33 38 50 66 82 62 65 42 200 MB DIV 15 33 49 66 33 51 39 44 13 46 44 71 37 700-850 TADV -11 -8 -6 -8 -3 -2 -3 -2 -3 2 -3 -5 -3 LAND (KM) 802 692 540 419 343 377 345 304 252 201 100 157 295 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.2 13.4 13.6 13.7 14.1 14.8 15.4 15.7 16.2 16.9 17.5 18.2 LONG(DEG W) 53.4 55.1 56.8 58.4 59.9 63.1 66.5 69.7 72.7 75.3 77.8 79.6 81.1 STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 16 15 15 16 16 15 14 13 10 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 35 30 44 52 53 40 47 65 37 87 116 129 103 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 757 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -11. -11. -11. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. -1. 0. -2. -2. -1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 16. 19. 23. 27. 34. 41. 45. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052012 FIVE 08/02/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052012 FIVE 08/02/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)