* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERNESTO AL052012 08/02/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 46 50 54 60 64 67 68 69 75 77 82 V (KT) LAND 40 43 46 50 54 60 64 67 68 69 75 77 82 V (KT) LGE mod 40 44 47 49 51 57 63 70 74 79 86 94 101 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 16 11 5 2 5 3 10 4 4 0 4 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 -1 0 -1 0 6 -2 0 0 2 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 264 255 263 263 229 226 235 256 273 294 246 277 104 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.9 28.2 28.4 28.0 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.6 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 141 139 138 142 144 138 142 143 143 145 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 145 144 142 140 144 146 137 140 139 137 138 139 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 -53.8 -53.2 -53.3 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 10 9 11 9 10 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 61 59 59 60 61 60 60 62 63 67 63 68 69 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 11 12 13 13 13 12 10 9 12 11 12 850 MB ENV VOR 18 31 40 42 48 53 62 86 92 89 70 67 65 200 MB DIV 42 70 60 37 44 61 46 39 28 45 47 45 48 700-850 TADV -8 -7 -6 -7 -1 -3 -1 -4 -5 -5 -5 -2 -3 LAND (KM) 628 469 346 295 322 381 312 274 295 178 176 341 301 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.1 13.3 13.5 13.6 14.0 14.7 15.2 15.5 16.1 17.1 17.8 18.4 LONG(DEG W) 55.6 57.4 59.1 60.8 62.5 65.6 68.9 72.0 74.8 77.3 79.5 81.5 83.4 STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 17 17 16 16 16 14 13 12 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 27 46 54 52 40 33 68 46 59 112 125 85 96 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 770 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 14. 17. 20. 21. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 9. 11. 12. 14. 14. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -12. -14. -15. -16. -15. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -3. -1. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 20. 24. 27. 28. 29. 35. 37. 42. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052012 ERNESTO 08/02/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052012 ERNESTO 08/02/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)