* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERNESTO AL052012 08/03/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 51 54 57 62 65 69 71 74 78 80 79 V (KT) LAND 45 48 51 54 57 62 65 69 71 74 78 80 79 V (KT) LGE mod 45 49 51 54 56 62 70 77 84 89 93 98 101 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 15 10 6 5 6 2 11 5 8 4 9 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -3 -5 0 0 -2 -3 -4 -2 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 247 263 276 269 256 317 234 298 260 295 268 291 276 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.9 28.5 28.2 28.1 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.7 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 139 137 137 146 141 140 145 143 144 146 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 144 142 139 139 147 142 140 143 137 136 137 141 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -52.6 -52.9 -52.2 -52.9 -52.4 -53.0 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 10 9 9 9 8 9 8 9 7 8 700-500 MB RH 58 56 59 63 65 65 69 67 71 70 77 79 80 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 12 13 13 12 10 10 10 11 12 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR 30 36 34 40 46 52 62 75 84 68 66 44 42 200 MB DIV 66 52 17 22 44 50 66 30 58 47 67 40 46 700-850 TADV -8 -7 -5 -2 -2 0 0 -4 -5 -3 -2 -5 -2 LAND (KM) 479 350 289 316 333 352 311 285 177 157 259 355 288 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.4 13.4 13.6 13.7 14.2 14.9 15.5 16.2 16.9 17.7 18.5 19.2 LONG(DEG W) 57.4 59.1 60.8 62.4 64.0 67.1 70.1 73.2 76.3 78.9 80.7 82.4 84.2 STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 16 16 16 15 15 15 14 11 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 46 48 50 45 37 58 81 36 90 114 97 87 120 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 801 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 17. 18. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 17. 20. 24. 26. 29. 33. 35. 34. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052012 ERNESTO 08/03/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 45.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052012 ERNESTO 08/03/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)