* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERNESTO AL052012 08/03/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 48 50 53 59 61 68 72 80 83 89 90 V (KT) LAND 45 46 48 50 53 59 61 68 72 80 83 89 90 V (KT) LGE mod 45 47 48 50 53 58 65 73 81 88 96 103 107 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 12 5 5 7 3 9 3 4 1 5 3 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 -1 -3 0 2 -4 0 -1 3 -1 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 260 282 261 259 274 316 239 329 290 352 290 144 224 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.4 28.3 28.1 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.7 29.0 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 141 139 139 140 144 143 140 145 143 144 147 151 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 142 141 142 146 144 139 144 139 137 138 141 136 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 9 11 8 9 8 9 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 55 56 57 61 61 59 63 64 69 69 70 72 70 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 13 13 13 13 10 11 10 12 11 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR 36 32 42 44 57 59 86 87 90 76 72 64 53 200 MB DIV 49 14 20 38 43 48 44 51 56 49 46 31 44 700-850 TADV -9 -3 -2 -4 -9 0 1 -5 -4 -2 -4 -4 -4 LAND (KM) 347 343 366 393 402 304 266 199 133 252 355 266 123 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 13.9 14.0 14.2 14.3 14.8 15.5 16.1 16.8 17.6 18.5 19.4 20.3 LONG(DEG W) 59.8 61.5 63.2 64.8 66.4 69.5 72.6 75.6 78.4 80.6 82.4 84.1 85.9 STM SPEED (KT) 19 17 16 16 16 15 15 14 12 11 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 49 50 43 35 51 80 36 90 112 97 87 126 85 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 21 CX,CY: -20/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 846 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 17. 18. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -3. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 14. 16. 23. 27. 35. 39. 44. 45. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052012 ERNESTO 08/03/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 45.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052012 ERNESTO 08/03/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)