* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERNESTO AL052012 08/03/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 46 48 50 53 57 66 73 79 84 87 86 V (KT) LAND 45 45 46 48 50 53 57 66 73 79 84 87 86 V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 46 48 50 56 62 70 80 91 100 105 103 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 7 5 4 7 6 11 2 6 2 5 8 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 1 0 0 -5 -1 -3 0 3 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 283 290 214 265 280 243 302 77 319 111 275 222 267 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 28.1 28.4 28.5 28.0 28.3 28.5 28.4 28.6 28.8 29.0 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 140 138 140 144 146 139 143 145 143 145 148 152 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 140 142 145 147 139 142 142 137 137 139 143 133 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -52.4 -52.9 -52.5 -52.8 -52.2 -52.7 -52.2 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 9 9 10 8 9 8 9 7 9 8 700-500 MB RH 57 57 59 61 61 62 65 67 69 74 72 74 73 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 11 12 11 9 9 9 9 8 9 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 32 36 40 51 53 73 79 77 68 64 37 48 18 200 MB DIV -18 -3 30 35 51 47 20 71 43 40 33 38 28 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -2 -7 -2 -1 -1 -6 -7 -4 -8 -5 -10 LAND (KM) 315 338 368 392 336 277 257 147 177 330 346 233 23 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.8 13.9 14.2 14.4 14.9 15.7 16.4 17.0 17.8 18.7 19.7 20.8 LONG(DEG W) 61.5 63.2 64.9 66.4 67.9 71.0 74.1 76.9 79.4 81.4 83.0 84.8 86.7 STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 16 15 15 15 15 13 11 10 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 53 43 33 52 68 72 52 91 114 92 96 124 45 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 765 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 18. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -5. -6. -5. -6. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -3. -5. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 21. 28. 34. 39. 42. 41. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052012 ERNESTO 08/03/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 49.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052012 ERNESTO 08/03/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)