* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERNESTO AL052012 08/03/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 49 52 56 59 64 72 79 84 88 92 91 V (KT) LAND 45 46 49 52 56 59 64 72 79 84 88 92 66 V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 48 50 54 61 70 79 88 98 103 105 75 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 4 5 8 6 12 3 7 7 6 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -1 -1 0 0 -1 -3 -3 -2 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 310 211 298 307 19 289 351 290 354 316 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 28.1 28.4 28.5 28.3 28.0 28.4 28.3 28.5 28.7 29.0 28.7 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 138 140 144 146 143 139 144 142 144 146 151 147 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 142 147 148 144 140 143 137 136 137 141 138 134 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 8 10 9 10 9 8 7 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 61 62 62 62 61 63 65 66 70 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 13 13 14 11 10 10 11 10 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 37 57 57 64 75 81 80 66 56 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 1 13 44 53 64 28 19 41 37 28 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -8 0 -2 -2 -1 -3 0 -9 -4 -6 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 344 375 374 324 290 301 222 184 299 305 329 134 -42 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.0 14.1 14.4 14.7 15.3 15.8 16.6 17.4 18.2 18.8 19.8 21.2 LONG(DEG W) 63.3 65.0 66.6 68.2 69.7 72.9 76.2 78.9 81.0 82.8 84.3 86.1 88.0 STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 16 15 15 16 15 12 10 9 9 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 46 34 51 67 79 28 79 116 93 93 107 90 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):276/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 18. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 13. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 11. 14. 19. 27. 34. 39. 43. 47. 46. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052012 ERNESTO 08/03/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 55.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052012 ERNESTO 08/03/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)