* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERNESTO AL052012 08/04/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 52 56 59 64 69 77 83 86 91 92 92 V (KT) LAND 45 48 52 56 59 64 69 77 83 86 91 92 55 V (KT) LGE mod 45 47 49 52 56 64 74 83 92 98 103 103 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 5 9 8 2 10 1 10 3 8 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 0 5 -2 0 -4 -3 -2 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 211 299 309 20 205 303 303 338 352 323 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.4 28.5 28.2 27.9 28.2 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.7 29.0 28.4 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 139 144 146 142 138 142 143 141 142 147 152 142 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 147 148 143 139 143 141 134 134 140 143 130 130 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -52.5 -52.4 -53.1 -52.2 -52.8 -52.2 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 10 9 8 9 8 9 6 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 63 63 62 61 62 65 67 72 72 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 13 14 12 11 10 10 10 11 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 55 58 65 78 82 96 76 70 41 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 14 44 53 64 70 7 30 30 51 26 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -1 -3 1 1 0 -7 -2 -7 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 355 378 312 270 261 301 206 253 295 276 234 33 -39 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.0 14.2 14.5 14.8 15.4 15.9 16.5 17.1 18.1 19.4 20.4 21.1 LONG(DEG W) 64.8 66.4 68.0 69.6 71.2 74.6 77.7 79.9 81.5 83.2 85.2 86.9 88.5 STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 16 16 16 16 13 10 9 10 11 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 31 48 65 80 67 55 99 103 78 88 108 52 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 16. 18. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 14. 19. 24. 32. 38. 41. 46. 47. 47. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052012 ERNESTO 08/04/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 58.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 44% is 3.4 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052012 ERNESTO 08/04/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)