* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIX AL062012 08/04/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 41 48 51 54 57 57 60 63 66 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 41 48 51 54 57 57 60 63 66 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 34 37 42 49 55 61 65 68 71 75 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 14 12 10 9 5 10 3 9 4 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 0 2 0 1 5 3 8 2 5 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 49 57 73 99 123 129 177 192 169 196 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.4 26.6 26.7 27.2 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 122 121 122 123 121 119 119 122 120 121 122 129 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 117 118 120 117 112 113 120 119 117 118 128 141 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -54.0 -54.0 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 5 5 6 6 7 8 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 70 68 69 68 67 64 60 56 50 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 9 9 9 10 9 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 1 2 10 27 44 60 64 75 63 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 55 42 30 42 5 -25 -18 -6 -36 -18 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -14 -10 -10 -4 -3 0 1 2 6 5 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1055 1161 1270 1413 1557 1783 1923 1877 1614 1447 1396 1315 1046 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 27.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 12 13 12 8 9 15 16 13 13 17 18 HEAT CONTENT 4 6 4 0 0 0 3 12 3 1 2 10 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 18. 21. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 18. 21. 24. 27. 27. 30. 33. 36. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062012 SIX 08/04/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062012 SIX 08/04/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)