* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERNESTO AL052012 08/04/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 59 64 66 73 81 87 92 96 97 97 95 V (KT) LAND 50 54 59 64 66 73 81 87 92 96 97 63 64 V (KT) LGE mod 50 53 58 62 67 76 86 94 101 105 108 69 77 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 6 1 6 3 2 6 7 11 9 6 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 -1 4 4 2 0 0 -3 -5 -3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 293 297 350 129 262 17 306 358 304 346 321 329 293 SST (C) 28.3 28.5 28.2 27.8 27.8 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.6 29.0 28.5 28.5 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 143 146 142 137 136 144 142 142 145 152 144 144 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 148 145 139 138 145 137 135 137 143 135 132 139 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -52.4 -52.1 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 10 10 9 10 8 9 7 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 63 64 61 62 61 63 67 70 73 72 71 70 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 14 13 12 11 11 11 12 12 12 14 15 850 MB ENV VOR 51 57 61 75 82 80 77 60 48 30 27 35 22 200 MB DIV 37 66 70 68 34 20 25 27 41 51 37 48 47 700-850 TADV -2 1 0 0 3 -4 -3 -6 -8 -10 -8 -6 -5 LAND (KM) 368 301 248 236 306 244 230 308 267 317 89 -37 140 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.1 14.3 14.6 14.9 15.6 16.3 17.0 17.8 18.8 20.0 21.2 22.5 LONG(DEG W) 66.4 68.0 69.6 71.4 73.1 76.5 79.2 81.2 82.8 84.5 86.5 88.2 89.6 STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 17 17 17 15 12 9 9 10 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 46 65 80 61 26 80 113 83 84 105 77 20 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 14. 15. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 16. 23. 31. 37. 42. 46. 47. 47. 45. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052012 ERNESTO 08/04/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 55.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 42% is 3.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052012 ERNESTO 08/04/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 4( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)