* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIX AL062012 08/04/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 37 40 44 44 47 47 48 49 52 54 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 37 40 44 44 47 47 48 49 52 54 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 34 36 41 46 50 53 54 56 58 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 15 12 9 6 8 9 7 9 6 7 3 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 3 2 5 6 5 7 5 5 6 5 6 SHEAR DIR 52 68 87 104 99 138 214 188 225 229 247 325 288 SST (C) 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.3 26.5 26.6 26.9 27.6 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 123 122 121 120 119 118 117 118 120 121 125 133 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 118 117 116 114 111 112 114 117 117 121 131 137 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 9 9 10 11 700-500 MB RH 71 66 67 66 64 62 59 55 52 48 45 44 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 12 12 11 11 10 8 7 6 5 4 4 2 850 MB ENV VOR 0 0 7 24 34 48 63 67 58 35 19 -7 -18 200 MB DIV 29 20 25 13 -12 -18 -12 -2 -35 4 -8 -10 -3 700-850 TADV -15 -11 -9 -10 -7 4 6 11 9 13 12 2 9 LAND (KM) 1187 1302 1418 1541 1664 1889 2009 1827 1654 1469 1331 1199 937 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.4 14.7 15.0 15.2 15.4 15.6 15.9 16.3 16.4 16.4 16.4 16.5 LONG(DEG W) 28.5 29.6 30.7 31.9 33.0 35.1 37.1 39.7 42.7 45.7 48.5 51.5 54.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 12 11 11 10 11 14 14 14 14 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 6 4 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 8 22 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 13. 17. 20. 22. 23. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 14. 14. 17. 17. 18. 19. 22. 24. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062012 SIX 08/04/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062012 SIX 08/04/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)