* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERNESTO AL052012 08/04/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 52 54 57 64 69 76 79 84 85 90 90 V (KT) LAND 45 49 52 54 57 64 69 76 79 84 85 47 50 V (KT) LGE mod 45 47 49 52 55 61 69 78 87 95 100 53 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 6 3 10 11 2 8 2 9 4 12 1 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 9 4 0 0 0 -1 -3 -3 1 2 5 SHEAR DIR 293 332 279 256 295 261 330 305 319 347 342 46 350 SST (C) 28.5 28.2 27.9 27.9 28.2 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.7 28.9 28.4 28.7 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 146 142 138 138 142 144 141 142 147 150 142 147 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 144 139 139 143 141 135 134 138 142 132 135 137 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.5 -52.3 -52.6 -53.0 -52.3 -52.9 -52.2 -52.5 -51.8 -52.3 -51.5 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 9 9 8 7 8 6 9 7 10 8 700-500 MB RH 65 61 61 61 62 69 69 74 71 72 69 64 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 14 13 13 12 11 12 12 13 12 16 17 850 MB ENV VOR 55 59 68 73 80 84 63 60 42 49 43 53 48 200 MB DIV 51 67 54 24 15 46 34 30 35 39 40 58 51 700-850 TADV 4 0 4 2 0 -2 -7 -3 -8 -3 -7 -1 0 LAND (KM) 315 271 261 316 301 195 261 271 231 223 15 -25 94 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.5 14.8 15.1 15.4 16.0 16.5 17.1 17.8 18.8 20.1 21.1 21.8 LONG(DEG W) 67.9 69.6 71.2 72.9 74.6 77.7 80.0 81.9 83.6 85.4 87.2 89.0 90.6 STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 16 17 16 13 10 9 9 10 10 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 65 80 65 29 58 96 88 69 78 96 58 22 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 12. 14. 16. 17. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 2. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -3. -4. -4. -4. -1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 12. 19. 24. 31. 34. 39. 40. 45. 45. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052012 ERNESTO 08/04/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 59.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 43% is 3.4 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052012 ERNESTO 08/04/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)