* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062012 08/04/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 48 50 52 54 52 51 50 48 47 46 44 V (KT) LAND 40 44 48 50 52 54 52 51 50 48 47 46 44 V (KT) LGE mod 40 45 49 52 55 60 62 63 63 63 63 63 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 12 9 6 11 9 10 10 13 14 15 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 1 4 7 3 8 4 6 5 3 7 3 SHEAR DIR 67 87 120 136 137 188 209 218 233 244 274 256 284 SST (C) 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.2 26.1 26.2 26.4 26.6 26.9 27.7 28.2 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 122 120 119 118 116 115 117 120 122 125 135 142 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 115 114 112 110 110 112 116 119 123 132 139 138 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.4 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 10 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 67 66 65 62 61 62 56 55 49 46 47 46 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 12 11 10 9 7 6 5 4 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR -2 5 20 29 36 58 64 72 51 28 10 -11 -33 200 MB DIV 0 7 0 -17 -12 -17 -12 -17 0 8 9 14 9 700-850 TADV -14 -10 -7 -4 -3 9 13 15 13 16 14 8 11 LAND (KM) 1343 1455 1567 1680 1793 2040 1911 1718 1545 1426 1244 1058 791 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.9 15.2 15.5 15.8 16.2 16.3 16.5 16.9 17.4 17.7 18.5 19.6 LONG(DEG W) 30.0 31.1 32.1 33.2 34.2 36.5 39.0 42.0 45.2 48.6 51.9 55.2 58.3 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 11 11 11 12 13 15 16 16 16 16 15 HEAT CONTENT 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 10 31 31 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 524 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 15. 16. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -1. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 10. 12. 14. 12. 11. 10. 8. 7. 6. 4. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062012 FLORENCE 08/04/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062012 FLORENCE 08/04/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)