* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERNESTO AL052012 08/04/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 56 59 63 70 76 81 84 88 90 91 90 V (KT) LAND 50 53 56 59 63 70 76 81 84 88 68 54 53 V (KT) LGE mod 50 52 54 57 60 68 77 88 95 100 80 61 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 3 7 13 6 7 6 5 10 7 9 6 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 7 4 -3 -3 -4 0 0 -1 -2 0 3 0 SHEAR DIR 329 244 274 297 310 332 39 306 341 318 357 325 4 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.5 28.7 28.9 28.8 28.4 28.8 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 143 141 140 143 144 143 145 145 149 148 143 148 158 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 143 141 142 143 141 140 134 137 139 134 136 142 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.0 -51.9 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 10 8 9 6 8 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 64 64 62 64 65 68 68 72 71 73 69 65 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 11 12 11 12 10 11 11 11 12 14 14 850 MB ENV VOR 54 68 73 74 79 79 55 49 34 28 37 40 40 200 MB DIV 73 58 31 16 21 33 34 31 31 47 52 49 52 700-850 TADV 0 1 -2 -3 -4 -3 -4 -4 -7 -5 -7 -4 -3 LAND (KM) 287 286 271 265 226 222 307 262 285 187 -62 44 209 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.1 15.5 15.7 15.8 16.1 17.3 18.0 18.4 19.1 20.4 21.6 22.8 LONG(DEG W) 69.3 71.0 72.7 74.3 75.8 78.8 81.6 83.3 84.3 85.7 87.9 89.6 90.9 STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 16 15 14 14 12 7 6 10 11 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 77 69 34 54 80 107 72 81 94 96 70 9 50 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 20. 26. 31. 34. 38. 40. 41. 40. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052012 ERNESTO 08/04/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 62.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 89.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 38% is 3.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052012 ERNESTO 08/04/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 4( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 2( 2) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)