* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062012 08/04/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 53 55 57 59 59 59 56 57 56 54 53 V (KT) LAND 45 49 53 55 57 59 59 59 56 57 56 54 53 V (KT) LGE mod 45 50 54 57 59 63 65 66 67 67 66 65 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 10 10 11 7 7 10 11 17 17 28 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 6 7 4 6 8 7 8 12 7 4 3 SHEAR DIR 100 108 114 119 128 195 194 233 254 262 244 253 241 SST (C) 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.1 26.2 26.3 26.5 26.8 27.6 28.1 28.3 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 120 118 117 116 115 117 119 121 125 134 140 143 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 113 112 111 110 112 115 119 123 131 137 138 138 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -52.6 -53.0 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 10 11 11 12 700-500 MB RH 64 63 61 59 59 55 50 50 43 41 40 47 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 15 16 15 16 15 14 14 11 13 13 12 13 850 MB ENV VOR 16 34 43 50 60 82 78 84 53 38 8 -5 -13 200 MB DIV 14 11 12 8 -9 -12 4 -17 2 6 33 -11 16 700-850 TADV -13 -15 -8 -6 -2 -4 5 2 0 -1 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 1471 1589 1707 1831 1954 1980 1794 1617 1509 1368 1170 871 676 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.4 15.7 15.9 16.1 16.4 16.6 17.1 17.9 18.9 20.0 21.3 22.6 LONG(DEG W) 31.2 32.3 33.4 34.6 35.7 38.2 41.0 44.3 47.9 51.4 54.7 58.0 61.1 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 12 13 15 17 18 17 17 16 15 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 8 25 37 32 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 490 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -7. -5. -5. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 10. 12. 14. 14. 14. 11. 12. 11. 9. 8. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062012 FLORENCE 08/04/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 67.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062012 FLORENCE 08/04/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)